[chittychittybangbang]

I had previously guessed that VW had sold about 40,000 TDI as of the end of November. I went through VW's sales figures media releases and added up how many they have sold. Some of these numbers are given and therefore confirmed by VW, some are calculated, and some are estimated. Those which are calculated are from VW's official media releases of sales figures which say something like 80% of wagons sold were TDI this month. I used those percentages to guess how many TDI were sold in the months when they didn't announce the percent of TDI sold.

To make a long story short, here is my estimated current number as of the end of November: 55,947 plus or minus 4,000. This is getting close to the 60,000 limit! My best guess that the total TDI sales figure will pass this number sometime early 2010 because sales in December are normally slow because of the holidays. Accounting for a few thousand cars sold during December they will be very close to the 60,000 mark, plus or minus 4,000. The IRS hasn't announced anything yet so I can only speculate that they haven't passed this mark and my estimates aren't too far off. Because the credit ends the quarter after the quarter 60,000 sales are reached, I'm pretty confident that the latest the full credit will end is the end of 2st quarter 2010, or June 2010.

IMHO, this is a HUGE slack job on VW and the IRS's part. The last official number they gave was 12,218! I do not fearmonger on this site but I do try to put together the best information out there based on what's available. See the link for the monthly table breakdown and check for yourself. http://www.myturbodiesel.com/1000q/TDItaxcredit.htm If you appreciate the info that I've given vs. the info from VW and the IRS, feel free to look at any ads in the FAQ article that you may see, it pays the monthly hosting and infrastructure costs but not even anywhere close to my time to put all this information together.

To calm down any panic attack that may cause you to run to the dealer and pay over MSRP, this is just the end of the full credit amount. You can still claim 50% of the credit amount for the next 2 quarters, or until the end of December 2010. You can still claim 25% of the credit amount for 2 quarters after that or until the end of the Alternative motor vehicle credit, which is Dec 31, 2010.

 

[Stefan2006]

Lawl...from 12,218 to over the limit without a notice.anic: At least there's a bright side to not being able to find any TDI! So is this the REAL reason why they announced that they are ramping up production of TDI for North America?

 

[chittychittybangbang]

Lol, maybe.

Even if I assume a 10% margin of error for 2009 estimated sales figures, this still means they sold 12,218 (confirmed number) during 2008, and about 38,000 (low realistic estimate) during 2009 until December. Add another 2,000 for december (assuming slow sales) and you are at 52,218. The range of sales per month have been between 2500 and 6300. Let's say they sell 3000 per month. (The last few months they have sold over 4000 per month.) That means they will pass 60,000 sometime mid March. This would push the beginning of the phase out period into the next quarter but these are LOW estimates. The Golf TDI and Audi A3 TDI have been introduced and I'm not sure if they count Audi as a separate technology since they're all TDI.

Therefore, BEST case scenario the full credit will last into the third quarter of 2010. More likely they will pass 60,000 before March and follow this picture.

The full credit is still available for 1 more quarter after the quarter they pass 60,000 so I am thinking that the full credit will be available until end of June 2010.

 

[goyeahyeah]

Lawl...from 12,218 to over the limit without a notice.anic: At least there's a bright side to not being able to find any TDI! So is this the REAL reason why they announced that they are ramping up production of TDI for North America?

Well they did take over Porsche through reverse psychology - you get them to try to buy you, then you turn the tables. Car dealers 101 - tell the customer that you can't find any so that you maximise profits per sale. Only with the rise of the internet and everybody knowing the invoice price, raise the "invoice" price and create a shortage.

 

[Stefan2006]

Well they did take over Porsche through reverse psychology - you get them to try to buy you, then you turn the tables. Car dealers 101 - tell the customer that you can't find any so that you maximise profits per sale. Only with the rise of the internet and everybody knowing the invoice price, raise the "invoice" price and create a shortage.

*GENIUS on the level of new Coke

 

[5point]

Strange, the IRS says that sales figures were updated Septemper 2009 but the only numbers that are there are BMW sales figures.

 

[chittychittybangbang]

They are behind and as far as I know, this is the first somewhat accurate estimate of the sales figures. I can understand the IRS being behind but VW knows the exact number. Like I said, my number could be +/- 4,000 but I have a feeling it's definitely within that margin of error.

 

[BMWnugen]

According to your numbers, 29,057 sales are confirmed, 24,872 are estimated. +/- 4,000 is really a 16% margin of error on your estimate.

 

[8Hector8]

nice work

 

[chittychittybangbang]

Well, VW finally updated their TDI sales numbers:

Official TDI sales numbers as of 1/5/10:
2008: 12,218
2009: 41,278
Total: 53,496

This is 2-3 months worth of sales before they pass 60,000. They might just get by another quarter if sales are slow but I doubt it. I'm still sticking to my prediction of the credit ending end of June 2010.

 

[goyeahyeah]

That's VW's sales, don't for get Audi. If you count Audi in the same category they must have sold at least 1000 units.

 

[3waygeek]

Audi sold 572 A3's and 676 Q7's in the US during December 2009. Of course not all of those were TDI;the linked article isn't that specific.

 

[chittychittybangbang]

thanks! I'll try to dig some more.

 

[chittychittybangbang]

VW has confirmed my suspicion - dealers are getting letters that announce the fed income tax credit for alt motor vehicles. It doesn't matter if they passed 60,000 today or tomorrow, all that matters is they pass 60,000 sales as of end of 1st quarter, 2010.

The tax credit FAQ has been updated to reflect these numbers and confirm that the 100% credit will end 2nd quarter 2010, after that 50% credit, at end of 2010 the credit will be 0.

http://www.myturbodiesel.com/1000q/TDItaxcredit.htm Here is the article again.

 

[rookie]

any chance this will get extended?

 

[strike3]

any chance this will get extended?

Write your congressman and senator. The program's through the government, not VW.

 

[Superbass]

My guess is no because the government is hurting for tax dollars. Maybe but probably not.

 

[buzybee]

FYI, VW has announced it on the VW news site as well.

 

[tango1]

Tax Credit

When will we know for sure? I purchased mine on 3-3-10. Do you think I will have the chance on getting the tax credit and how much would it be. Thank-you.