50-50.
The current supply is short but they finally ramped up production. It will take a while for the new supply to trickle down to the dealers. I highly doubt they are aware of this at the dealer level since most car salespeople barely even know what's in the sales brochure. So I don't think they were straight out lying if they mentioned the short supply. Current allocations average only a few TDI per dealer per month and most of the time they're already sold or sell fast. In the next few months this will increase by 4-6 per month, on average, per dealer. Some dealers get more allocations and some get less. Since every dealer gets different allocations, as a rough guess this means about 7-15 TDI total (all models) per month at each dealer. After the intial demand dies down I think you'll have more options.
So while current supply is short, you'll get what you in a 2010 VW Golf TDI if you wait AND shop around...in 2010 and not 2011
